On the Margins with Pitchers & Hitters
Today we’ve got two sharp Margin Contests: one zeroes in on starting pitchers and their strikeout potential, and the other highlights impact hitters and their recent form. Rather than zooming out for team-wide trends, we’re diving deep into 1:1 player matchups.
📺 Today's TV Games
- ⚾ Seattle Mariners @ Chicago Cubs – MLB Network
- ⚾ New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies – Apple TV+
- ⚾ Kansas City Royals @ San Diego Padres – Apple TV+
🏆 Pick 6 Margin (2:20pm ET/11:20am PT)
⚾ Seattle @ Chicago Cubs
Matthew Boyd has recorded 73 strikeouts in 80.2 innings pitched this season, with K totals of 6, 0, and 3 in his last three outings. He’ll benefit from facing a Mariners team that ranks in the top 10 for most strikeouts this year.
George Kirby is more strikeout-oriented, with 30 Ks across 25.2 innings. His last three games yielded 3, 14, and 5 strikeouts. Note that the 14 K performance came against the swing-happy Angels. The Cubs, however, are in the league’s bottom third in team strikeouts.
- Matthew Boyd – Strikeouts
- George Kirby – Strikeouts
⚾ NY Mets @ Philadelphia
Blade Tidwell has only made one MLB start this season, pitching 3.2 innings and striking out two. The Phillies are almost statistically tied with the Mets in total strikeouts, just below the Cubs.
Zack Wheeler, the Phillies’ ace, has racked up 110 strikeouts in 88 innings pitched. In his last three outings, he’s totaled 6, 7, and 9 Ks, consistently logging more strikeouts than innings pitched. He has averaged 6.2 innings over his last seven starts.
- Blade Tidwell– Strikeouts
- Zack Wheeler – Strikeouts
⚾ Kansas City @ San Diego
Michael Lorenzen is averaging 0.84 strikeouts per inning and 5.2 innings per start over his last seven games. He posted a high of 7 Ks two games ago—though that was against the struggling White Sox. The Padres, however, are 28th in MLB in strikeouts, making them a tough target.
Nick Pivetta averages 1.11 strikeouts per inning and has pitched at least 6 innings in most of his recent starts. The Royals are one spot above the Padres in team strikeouts—still among the lowest in the league.
- Michael Lorenzen – Strikeouts
- Nick Pivetta – Strikeouts
🏆 Pick 5 Margin (7:15pm ET/4:15pm PT)
⚾ NY Mets @ Philadelphia
Pete Alonso has historically struggled against the Phillies’ pitching staff, especially Zack Wheeler. He could find some success against the bullpen if he avoids another quiet day—he’s recorded just 4 hits and no runs or RBIs in his last 5 games.
Juan Soto fares better against Wheeler, with a .864 OPS in 61 plate appearances. He hasn’t seen much success against the Phillies’ bullpen, though, and has been quiet recently (1 run, 3 hits, 1 RBI in his last 5 games).
J.T. Realmuto has never faced Blade Tidwell, which could favor the pitcher. However, he does perform well against the Mets’ bullpen. That said, his current season stats are below career averages in batting average, OBP, and slugging.
- Pete Alonso – Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Juan Soto – Hits+Runs+RBIs
- JT Realmuto – Hits+Runs+RBIs
⚾ Kansas City @ San Diego
Bobby Witt Jr. doesn’t have much success against Padres pitchers but comes into the game hot, with 7 hits, 6 runs, and 2 RBIs in his last 4 games against Texas and Oakland.
Manny Machado, by contrast, has a strong track record against Royals pitching. He’s enjoying a strong offensive season across all major categories. While he was held without an RBI in his last four games versus the Dodgers, he still managed 2 runs and 3 hits.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Manny Machado – Hits+Runs+RBIs