Midwest Mashings
An afternoon/evening tour of the AL Central features Detroit, Minnesota, and Cleveland — with Miami making a cameo.
The Tigers have been treading water over the past few weeks but remain just 0.5 games behind Toronto for the top spot in the American League. Cleveland is 6.5 games back, one game out of the final Wild Card spot, but has been on a tear this past month, clawing their way back into contention.
Minnesota and Miami are on the outside looking in — more than six games out of the Wild Card with poor recent records. But that never stops a team from playing spoiler down the stretch while building for next year.
📺 Today's TV Games
- ⚾ No Contest Games on National TV Tonight
🎯 Pick'em 10 (6:40pm ET/3:40pm PT)
⚾ Miami @ Cleveland
Today’s rubber match features Miami’s top pitcher Edward Cabrera, who has a recent ERA of 2.06, averaging over a strikeout per inning while allowing only 0.64 hits per inning. This will be his first time facing Cleveland’s lineup — a team with the lowest batting average in the league.
Steven Kwan is in a slump but did homer last night against the Marlins. José Ramírez has been much better, with a .936 OPS over the past week.
Cleveland’s starter, Tanner Bibee, has been trending the opposite direction — his ERA has ballooned to 6.44 over his last seven starts. He hasn’t faced Miami either, and he doesn’t have the same strikeout stuff as Cabrera. Still, he’s gone 4-1 in those games thanks to strong run support.
Kyle Stowers is slumping badly in the second half, with only one double in the past week. Otto Lopez has struck out three times in this series alone.
🔹 Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
🔹 Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts
🔹 Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
🔹 José Ramírez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs
🔹 Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
⚾ Detroit @ Minnesota
The star of the show is Tarik Skubal, the pride of Kingman, AZ, and the current favorite for the AL Cy Young Award. Skubal holds an 11-3 record, a 2.35 ERA, and is leading the league in 10 statistical categories. He’s averaging 6.4 hits per nine innings with a WHIP of 0.860, though his recent four starts have averaged 5 hits allowed.
He has yet to face Mickey Gasper or Kody Clemens, both of whom have been struggling at the plate. Byron Buxton is hitting just .133 against him, though both of his hits were home runs.
Bailey Ober has been in a rough stretch — the Twins have lost all five of his last starts. Opponents are hitting over a hit per inning against him, with two home runs per nine innings. When he last faced Detroit (June 28), he surrendered 11 hits, 7 earned runs, and 4 home runs in 5.2 innings pitched.
Kerry Carpenter went 2-for-4 in that game with a home run, and Gleyber Torres added a 2-run shot. Riley Greenecrushes Ober (.313 AVG, .951 OPS), while Javier Báez has struggled mightily (1-for-15, 9 strikeouts).
🔹 Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
🔹 Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Runs
🔹 Bailey Ober – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
🔹 Mickey Gasper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🏆 Pick’em 5 Margin (7:40pm ET/4:40pm PT)
⚾ Detroit @ Minnesota
(See full game breakdown above)
🔸 Riley Greene – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Gleyber Torres – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Javier Baez – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Byron Buxton – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Kody Clemens – Hits + Runs + RBIs
La La Land Night Cap
Round 2 of the Los Angeles Dodgers–Los Angeles Angels series comes after a surprising Game 1 upset (maybe thanks to the umps? 🤔). Meanwhile, Game 1 of a three-game set between the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays gets underway north of the border.
The Cubs have seen the Milwaukee Brewers’ division lead swell from just one game to six over the past week and a half. The Blue Jays are hovering just above the Boston Red Sox, with four games separating them, as they push for the division crown after investing heavily in stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
📺 Today's TV Games
- ⚾ Chicago Cubs @ Toronto Blue Jays – TBS
🎯 Pick'em 10 (7:07pm ET/4:07pm PT)
⚾ Chicago Cubs @ Toronto
Ben Brown’s sophomore season with the Cubs has taken a sharp downturn. Over his last seven starts, he’s posted an 8.10 ERA, allowing six or more earned runs in four of those outings. His high strikeout rate is offset by giving up plenty of hits (and the occasional long ball). With Toronto hitting .313 and sporting an .896 OPS over the past month, expect their bats to be aggressive and looking for big contact early.
José Berríos has been the opposite of Brown — low strikeouts, limited hits — averaging less than one hit per inning for the season. However, recent outings show a dip in form, with hits allowed climbing above one per inning and a 5.71 ERA(compared to his season’s 3.89 ERA). The Cubs’ offense will need to wake up to exploit Berríos’ slump, but as a unit they’ve been underperforming. Ian Happ has been a bright spot, hitting .294 with an .871 OPS over the last week, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has struggled (.100 average, .200 OPS in the same span).
🔹 Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Walks
🔹 Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 José Berríos – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed
🔹 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts
🔹 Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
⚾ LA Dodgers @ LA Angels
This matchup isn’t as lopsided as the opposing pitchers’ ERAs suggest, though bullpen performance may decide the game. Emmet Sheehan owns a 3.00 ERA while Jack Mederos has a 4.50 ERA — but that number comes from limited bullpen work before being sent down. Tonight marks his first MLB start after dominating AAA with a 1.73 ERA in his last five outings, including four shutout innings last Friday. Expect a pitch count limit of three to four innings, five if he’s cruising.
Sheehan makes his sixth start since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024, having won his last two with five innings and five strikeouts apiece. The Angels have the highest strikeout total in the league, which plays to Sheehan’s strengths. Walks remain a concern, but his numbers are better as a starter than in relief.
🔹 Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
🔹 Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts
🔹 Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Walks
🔹 Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🏆 Pick’em 5 Margin (9:38pm ET/6:38pm PT)
⚾ LA Dodgers @ LA Angels
(See full game breakdown above)
🔸 Shohei Ohtani – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Will Smith – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Andy Pages – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Mike Trout – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Zach Neto – Hits + Runs + RBIs
Monday Madness
A new week kicks off as we move into the middle of August, bringing us a few big weekday series. The New York Yankees look to regain momentum at the expense of the Minnesota Twins, the Cincinnati Reds test their playoff muscle against the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Boston Red Sox head to Houston as both teams eye playoff seeding.
📺 Today's TV Games
- ⚾ Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees – MLB Network
🎯 Pick'em 10 (7:05pm ET/4:05pm PT)
⚾ Minnesota @ NY Yankees
A pair of young pitchers take the mound: Zebby Matthews (5.17 ERA) vs. Will Warren (4.44 ERA). Neither has faced the opposing lineup, and neither comes in looking dominant. Warren has been far better at home this season, but is currently in a rough stretch—strikeouts are down, walks are up, and opposing hitters are squaring him up. Add in the overzealous New York media pressure, and it’s no surprise the Yankees hold the AL’s worst record since June.
For the Twins, Matthews boasts a fantastic strikeout rate, but his road numbers rise noticeably. If the Yankees can put the ball in play, they can capitalize—especially if Minnesota’s defense slips. Matthews’ FIP shows he’s a fundamentally strong pitcher once fielding is removed from the equation, but a few defensive miscues could open the door for big innings against a veteran Yankees lineup.
🔹 Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 5.5 Stikeouts
🔹 Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
🔹 Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Walks
🔹 Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts
⚾ LA Dodgers @ LA Angels
An intriguing matchup where both starting pitchers perform better on the road—a good sign for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a bad one for José Soriano. The Dodgers lineup should have little trouble adjusting to Soriano, even without prior live at-bats against him.
Yamamoto enters in elite form, with just one blemish in his last seven starts—a one-inning outing against Milwaukee on July 7th. Even including that game, his ERA sits at 1.93 over those seven starts, with 44 strikeouts and only 9 walks in 37.1 innings. The Angels have lost 7 of their last 10, and Yamamoto doesn’t look likely to give them much to hit tonight.
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
🔹 Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 José Soriano – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
🔹 Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🏆 Pick’em 5 Margin (9:38pm ET/6:38pm PT)
⚾ LA Dodgers @ LA Angels
(See full game breakdown above)
🔸 Shohei Ohtani – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Mookie Bettts – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Teoscar Hernández – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Mike Trout – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Taylor Ward – Hits + Runs + RBIs
✍️ Two Games, One MLB App, and Zero Patience for Blackouts
Only two games on the slate tonight—and I can’t watch either. One’s locked behind an Apple TV+ paywall, and the other is blacked out in Tucson thanks to the ever-annoying San Diego restrictions.
Still, that won’t stop me from tracking two big matchups on the MLB App.
Houston heads to the Bronx to face their October nemesis, while Boston travels cross-country to play the always-feisty Padres. With the playoff picture sharpening by the day, each game now feels like a must-win.
- Houston is clinging to the top spot, trying to hold off the all-in Mariners
- The Yankees are stumbling in 3rd and desperate for stability
- Boston wants to hold onto 2nd
- San Diego still hopes LA falters and the division opens up
📺 Today's TV Games
- ⚾ Houston Astros @ New York Yankees – Apple TV+
🎯 Pick'em 10 (7:05pm ET/4:05pm PT)
⚾ Houston @ NY Yankees
- The Astros haven’t had much regular-season success against the Yankees recently, but they’re handing the ball to their workhorse tonight: Hunter Brown. With a 2.47 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings, Brown has been dominant.
He’s faced Aaron Judge a couple of times before—Judge is 2-for-3 with 2 walks and a homer. Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. haven’t seen Brown much and haven’t produced lately.
For the Yankees, it’s rookie Cam Schlittler on the mound. In four starts, he owns a 4.58 ERA with a solid 9.6 K/9. The problem? Walks. He’s averaging 5 per 9 innings, and against patient hitters like Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, that could mean early damage.
🔹 Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 Jeremy Peña – Over/Under 0.5 Runs
🔹 Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts
🔹 Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔹 Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Runs
🔹 Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits
⚾ Boston @ San Diego
Walker Buehler returns to the NL West—but this time in a Red Sox uniform. Still easing back from injury, Buehler has struggled: below a strikeout per inning, 4.2 BB/9, and 10.1 H/9. And the Padres’ top bats have all hit him well:
- Xander Bogaerts (.250)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. & Manny Machado (~.300)
- Jackson Merrill (.500, 2-for-4)
Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, is facing his former team and is in top form. He’s been lights out lately, posting a 1.01 ERA over his last 7 starts and season numbers of 2.73 ERA, 9.5 K/9, and just 6.2 H/9—his career best.
With Boston traveling cross-country and playing at what feels like 9:40 PM on their body clocks, we may see a quiet night from their bats despite averaging 8.7 runs over their last 7 games.
🔹 Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits
🔹 Masataka Yoshida – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts
🔹 Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Runs
🔹 Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts
🏆 Pick’em 5 Margin (9:40pm ET/6:40pm PT)
⚾ Boston @ San Diego
(See full game breakdown above)
🔸 Alex Bregman – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Jarren Duran – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Fernando Tatis Jr. – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Manny Machado – Hits + Runs + RBIs
🔸 Ramón Laureano – Hits + Runs + RBI
🪖 All Quiet on the Thursday Front
Just four games on the schedule today—and they all wrap up by 7:30 PM Pacific Time. If you’re on the West Coast, it’s a perfect evening to catch a movie with the family. Most of the league is resting and traveling ahead of high-stakes weekend series: Astros @ Yankees, Phillies @ Rangers, Mets @ Brewers, Cubs @ Cardinals, and Blue Jays @ Dodgers.
Playoff implications abound for the weekend—but today, let’s enjoy some early baseball and quality time with loved ones. ⚾❤️
📺 Today's TV Games
- ⚾ Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners – MLB Network
- ⚾ Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves – MLB Network
🎯 Pick'em 10 (4:10pm ET/1:10pm PT)
⚾ Chicago White Sox @ Seattle
Rookie Shane Smith of the struggling White Sox faces off against Logan Gilbert and the surging Mariners. While Smith has looked rough over his last seven starts, there’s a slight upward trend in his last two: a 4.91 ERA with 9 strikeouts in 7.1 innings. Seattle is a high-strikeout team, so Smith may post similar numbers again—but expect some earned runs too. In his only career outing against Seattle, both Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez had success.
Gilbert is a strikeout machine, averaging just under 13 K/9 innings, though he rarely pitches beyond the sixth. The White Sox rank 15th in strikeouts, so they aren’t the easiest matchup—but their bigger problem is offense. Look for Andrew Benintendi to apply pressure, while Brooks Baldwin and Colson Montgomery (facing Gilbert for the first time) may benefit from taking on Gilbert from the left side of the plate.
- Shane Smith – Over/Under 4.5 strikeouts
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 hits
- Brooks Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 hits
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 strikeouts
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
⚾ Miami @ Atlanta
After salvaging one win in their series against Houston, the Marlins head to Atlanta to face the slumping Braves. Tonight’s pitching matchup favors the road team: Eury Pérez (2.70 ERA) vs. Carlos Carrasco (5.68 ERA).
Pérez has been rock-solid, averaging more than a strikeout per inning and going at least 5 innings in each of his last 6 starts. The Braves are among the top third of MLB teams in strikeouts—expect plenty of whiffs.
Carrasco, a recent trade acquisition from the Yankees, has made just one start for Atlanta. He averages 3 walks per 9 innings and has issued 2 walks in 5 of his last 7 outings. While the Marlins don’t walk much (bottom third in the league), Xavier Edwards has seen Carrasco before, going 1-for-2 with a double.
- Eury Pérez – Over/Under 5.5 strikeouts
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 strikeouts
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 1.5 walks allowed
- Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 hits
🏆 Pick’em 5 Margin (7:15pm ET/4:15pm PT)
⚾ Miami @ Atlanta
(See full game breakdown above)
- Kyle Stowers – Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Agustín Ramírez – Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Otto Lopez – Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Matt Olson – Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Michael Harris II – Hits+Runs+RBIs
👯 Double Mint Double Pick 10s
It’s a full slate of games today as nearly every team wraps up their three-game weekend series. Only the Miami Marlins play tomorrow; the rest enjoy a day off—a factor that will influence bullpen strategies, especially for teams in tight playoff races. The pressure is on for the Houston Astros (fighting to hold first place), Boston Red Sox (trying to stay ahead of the Yankees), Kansas City Royals (pushing into the Wild Card), and the San Diego Padres (chasing the Dodgers in the NL West).
📺 Today's TV Games
- ⚾ San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks – MLB Network
🎯 Pick'em 10 (4:40pm ET/1:40pm PT)
⚾ Houston @ Miami
This game features two starting pitchers that hitters have barely faced.
Spencer Arrighetti returns to the mound for Houston after a four-month IL stint, making just his third start of the year. Janson Junk gets the ball for Miami, making only his second start against the Astros—the first came in 2021 as a member of the Angels.
Junk is a pitch-to-contact guy who relies on his defense, which was shaky just two nights ago against these same Astros. Houston’s bats are capable of finding holes and capitalizing on defensive lapses. Arrighetti struck out nearly a batter per inning in his two early-season starts and will likely challenge a Miami lineup that lacks familiarity with him.
- Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
- Jesús Sánchez – Over/Under 0.5 runs
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 strikeouts
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 runs
- Otto López – Over/Under 0.5 strikeouts
⚾ Kansas City @ Boston
Boston rolls out newly acquired Dustin May for his first start with the club. The bullpen is well-rested thanks to Garrett Crochet’s 7-inning outing last night.
May previously faced the Royals this season and struggled—he was knocked out after 4 innings, giving up 4 earned runs and 3 walks. Bobby Witt Jr. homered off him, and Maikel Garcia added a double. Neither struck out in that matchup.
On the mound for Kansas City is Michael Wacha, who enters on a hot streak, allowing just 1 run in each of his last four starts. While the strikeout rate isn’t elite, Boston’s lineup strikes out often and has little experience against him. Masataka Yoshida owns the best OPS of the bunch, though it’s based on just three plate appearances. Keep an eye on whether rookie standout Roman Anthony is in the lineup—his presence could shift how pitchers approach the rest of the batting order.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 2.5 hits+runs+RBIs
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 strikeouts
- Masataka Yoshida – Over/Under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 runs
🎯 Pick'em 10 (7:10pm ET/4:10pm PT)
⚾ Kansas City @ Boston
(See full game breakdown above)
- Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 strikeouts
- Dustin May – Over/Under 1.5 walks allowed
⚾ San Diego @ Arizona
Two pitchers with limited starter innings this year face off in a hitter-friendly ballpark—expect fireworks.
Last night’s 11-inning battle saw both teams combine for 15 runs, with the Padres putting up 5 in extras. Today, they start Nestor Cortes, who hasn’t pitched since early April. In his most recent outing, he walked two in a strong performance against the Reds, but that came after surrendering 5 walks and 5 home runs to the Yankees.
For Arizona, Anthony DeSclafani has floated between the rotation and the bullpen. His limited starts haven’t gone well. While he’s done well containing Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, he’s struggled against Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arráez, and Elias Diaz, who all own strong OPS numbers against him.
- Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 1.5 walks allowed
- Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 runs
- Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 strikeouts
- Anthony DeSclafani – Over/Under 5.5 hits allowed
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 runs
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 strikeouts